Guatemala, Comoros & Bhutan
Guatemala
There has been an inauguration which is a win for those on the side of progressive democracy. Bernardo Arevalo has been declared, somewhat belatedly, as president of Guatemala. He was finally inaugurated just after midnight on Monday 15th January despite the best efforts of the conservative Guatemalan legislature.
Arevalo ran on an anti-corruption campaign with the support of indigenous groups as well as youth and pro-democracy activists. With the help of these groups he won a surprise election victory in August 2023. Starting as an outsider he swept away the competition in what has been celebrated as a major shift away from the corruption and exploitation that has scarred the country since the US backed coup of 1954.
Bernardo Arevalo is the son of President Juan Jose Arevalo, Guatemala’s first democratically elected leader, who is remembered fondly in the country as a force for good. Arevalo Senior ruled from 1945 to 1951. He survived several coup attempts before he handed over the reins to Jacobo Arbenz. Arbenz would not prove to be so lucky. In 1954 the CIA successfully orchestrated a coup to overthrow the popular, reformist leader. Since then Guatemala has suffered greatly and is a clear example of the effects of a US foreign policy that is in reality neo-colonialism.
For the indigenous K’Iche peoples of Guatemala however, neo-colonialism might as well be good old fashioned colonialism. Lucia Ixchiu, who is exiled in Spain, spoke to Democracy Now after the inauguration of how her people, the K’Iche, are “facing against colonialism, 531 years fighting against slavery, because Guatemala is one of the most poverty countries all around the world, and the reality and the conditions until today is slavery.”
Lucia is part of an indigenous peoples movement called the 48 Cantones who supported Arevalo’s bid. The 48 Cantones state that the independence that Guatemala achieved from Spain was not in fact a real independence. What instead occurred was the independence of Spanish colonists who had been born in Guatemala, Criollos, from imperial Spain. The original inhabitants of the island were still ruled by a settler-colonial population and this has remained the state of affairs until now.
60% of Guatemalans live in poverty with that number rising to 80% amongst indigenous communities. Almost 70% of work is informal labour and the cost of basic services and materials are extremely high.
Arevalo comes from a party called Semilla which means seed. They were born out of anti-corruption protests in 2015.
Part of the shenanigans that have gone on since Arevalo’s victory in August have included aggressive legal campaigns against the party with unsubstantiated claims of fraud. The efforts to delay his inauguration have failed which led to Sunday night's last desperate attempt to stop Guatemala transitioning back into democracy.
The legislature, which is still held by the conservatives, attempted to block Arevalos accession and attempted to make the newly elected Semilla members of the legislature register as independents. Their efforts failed again when 92 of the 160 members of congress eventually won the day for the democratic process.
Outside, in Constitutional Plaza in Guatemala City, Arevalos supporters waited. Shortly after midnight the deal was done and hope was delivered to the Guatemalan people for the first time in over half a century.
Arevalos first act as President was to go and thank his youth and indigenous supporters. He has stated that the primary aim of his presidency will be to re-establish trust in Guatemala's institutions. Communities and people across the country have been abandoned by these institutions for decades so this will be a tall order.
While the elites of the country fought tooth and nail to keep Arevalo out of power it is notable that their efforts to blatantly undermine democracy brought rebukes and even sanctions from the US and EU. This alongside the mass movements and ongoing protests of the Guatemalan people has seen Bernardo Arevalo rightly take up his new role with the tentative hopes of a nation behind him.
Arevalo’s father, Juan Jose, is remembered as a progressive leader who implemented positive changes in public services, labour and agrarian reform that went on for a decade known before the coup of 1955. It is hoped that his son can follow in his fathers footsteps.
Comoros
The east African island nation of Comoros went to the polls on the 14th January with incumbent president Azali Assoumani being declared victorious two days later with 62.97% of the vote.
The victory enabled Assoumani to return to office for his fourth term of office. He first came to power in a 1999 coup before then stepping down in 2002 only to re-enter political life as president again in 2014. The election provided very little shocks to either the Comorian people or the international community with many questioning the veracity of the election.
The aftermath of the election has seen mass protests rock the country with people decrying alleged mass voter fraud. The government denies this claim. They have also declined to announce the number of protesters arrested by the army who took to the streets of the capital Moroni to disperse the crowds. A curfew has since been declared.
Comoros is a former French colony having gained its independence in 1975. Since then the country has undergone 20 coup attempts, the last of which resulted in Assoumani’s power grab. The country is quite impoverished and the president has been accused of persecuting political opponents. His response to this accusation was telling:
“Those who don’t want the elections to take place have two options: stay at home or leave the country,”
Bhutan
The Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan, famed for its policies of focusing upon Gross National Happiness of its people as opposed to Gross Domestic Product, went to the polls to choose their new government on the 9th January.
The election was the country's 4th since transitioning into a parliamentary monarchy in 2008. It was won by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), led by Thering Tobgay. Tobgay was previously Prime Minister from 2013 to 2018.
The PDP secured 30 of 47 seats in parliament with the remainder of seats going to the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP). A preliminary election had been held in November in which the governing party Druk Nyam Tshogba party was eliminated alongside others.
The primary issues on the minds of the Bhutanese people for this election were unemployment and revival of the economy. Youth unemployment in the country stands at 29% and this has led to a brain drain with many young Bhutanese emigrating to India and beyond for work. As well as this the economy has been sluggish to pick up after Covid, with tourism, one of the country's biggest industries being particularly slow to recover.
Watching the election closely were China and India, between whom the small nation is ensconced. Bhutan and India are on very good terms whilst Bhutan and China currently have no formal ties. There are currently ongoing negotiations over a border dispute between the Chinese and Bhutanese.
Territories that the Bhutanese claim as their own have recently been subject to Chinese settlement and construction. These major Chinese construction projects have seen an influx of Tibetan people moving into these areas for work and settlement. We know that Tibet, annexed by China in 1951, has been the subject of settler colonialism from China. It would seem that enticing Tibetans to leave their homeland and move to Bhutan is part of this strategy.
With many areas now under de facto Chinese control it is expected that a deal will be struck soon as once a border is demarcated it should, in theory, help the Bhutanese to prevent these uninvited Chinese settlements. India watches with interest of course as they too have their own border dispute with China and the two massively populous countries see each other as rivals to their own regional dominance.